Natural gas demand on track for sharpest-ever decline in 2020

first_imgRecord-low natural gas demand in 2020 is driving down commodity pricesThe oversupply resulting from lower gas consumption worldwide has put downwards pressure on prices, which have fallen to “lows not seen for more than a decade” across all major consuming regions.In the US, Henry Hub prices fell more than 33% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2020 to an average of $1.9 per million British thermal units (Btu) – the lowest quarterly price level since 1999.By May, these prices had fallen further to an average of $1.75 per million Btu amid “growing supply and subdued demand”, according to Sadamori.In Europe, TTF gas prices have more than halved compared to last year, averaging $2.6 per million Btu during the first five months of the year — and in May stood at $1.5 per million Btu, which is the lowest monthly average since the Dutch trading hub was established in 2003.Asian LNG spot prices halved year-on-year during the first five months of 2020 to an average of $3 per million Btu.“These very low price spreads are closing the opportunity for any inter-regional arbitrage, potentially resulting in negative netbacks for certain suppliers,” added Sadamori. Mature markets in Europe, Asia and North America will lead the decline Demand for natural gas is on course for its biggest-ever annual decline in 2020 as a result of a warm winter period in the northern hemisphere combined with the impact of coronavirus lockdowns.The fall is expected to reach around 150 billion cubic metres (bcm), representing a 4% drop compared to the previous year – twice the size of the demand loss following the 2008 financial crisis.Mature markets in Europe, North America and Asia are expected to account for around 75% of the decline, with power generation sectors driving around half of this total demand loss, according to a new analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA).“Natural gas has so far experienced a less severe impact than oil and coal, but it is far from immune from the current crisis,” said IEA executive director Dr Fatih Birol. “The record decline this year represents a dramatic change of circumstances for an industry that had become used to strong increases in demand.”Since 2016, global natural gas demand has increased by roughly 2% each year – aside from a bumper year in 2018 when demand grew by almost 5% — largely as a result of fuel switching in countries that have been replacing coal in their energy mixes.But a winter that was one of the warmest on record in the northern hemisphere had a strong impact on space heating needs — driving down demand even before the onset of coronavirus exacerbated the trend.“This year, 2020, is unprecedented at all levels – health, macroeconomy, global trade, energy demand — and gas will not escape this global downturn. This is unchartered territory,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director for energy markets and security. Demand will recover in 2021, but there will be a lasting impactAs lockdowns begin to lift around the world, the IEA anticipates a gradual demand recovery in 2021 — although cautioned that a second wave of the pandemic remains a potentially disruptive factor.“Global gas demand is expected to gradually recover in the next two years, but this does not mean it will quickly go back to business as usual,” Dr Birol said. “The Covid-19 crisis will have a lasting impact on future market developments, dampening growth rates and increasing uncertainties.”The energy watchdog predicts a 75 bcm contraction to annual demand by 2025 as a direct result of coronavirus disruption – the same amount as the increase recorded in 2019.Asian markets, led by China and India, will account for the majority of demand growth after 2021, although the pace of this increase will depend largely on the speed of recovery in industrial manufacturing sectors, the key demand drivers for natural gas in these countries. Supply-side uncertainty amid risk of future overcapacityOn the supply side, Sadamori warned of the potential for a “structurally loose” market, as a wave of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects — in which there was a record $65bn investment last year to add more than 90 bcm of new annual export capacity additions — come online amid this much-changed demand landscape.He warned of uncertainty as these additions outpace LNG export needs for the coming years unless additional demand is triggered by even lower gas prices, compromising future investments across the entire gas value chain, and in turn putting future market balance at risk.“Investment decisions taken over the past years to develop new production and infrastructure capacity materialise in the lower-growth environment — reinforcing the prospect of overcapacity and low prices,” said Sadamori.“Such a prospect casts a shadow on future investment, which will be needed in the long term to ensure the renewal of production sources and the global security of supply.” One of the warmest winters on record, coupled with the impact of Covid-19 lockdowns, means natural gas demand will fall by 4% in 2020, says the IEAlast_img read more

University tightens discipline rules

first_imgThe University is to unveil plans at Congregation to tighten up regulations on drugs and attempted property damage by students.The new rules would also remove the £100 limit on Proctoral fines.The possession of drugs would be reclassified as a breach of the Code of Discipline. Additionally, any “attempt to deface or destroy property” will be seen as a violation of the Code. Previously, it was only considered a breach to actually damage property, not simply to attempt to do so.In other changes to the University’s rules system, students who break university regulations will now have the right to appeal “against decisions to suspend a student pending criminal proceedings or a University disciplinary hearing.”A representative of the University Press Office said, “The amendments before Congregation to Statute VI relating to discipline is a tidying-up exercise – the amendments are all technical changes or clarifications. These are mainly efforts to tidy up Statute XI and introduce comparatively minor changes in the light of experience.”The Press Office also said that the removal of the cap on fines would have no practical effect , as the Council has for years set fines by specific regulations.The proposed changes will be put to Congregation, the University’s supreme governing body, on the 16th June. If approved, the new rules will come into effect in October 2009.The Press Office added, “The amendments have been under discussion for several months and come forward now so that, if approved, there will be time to amend websites etcetera, before they come into force.”It is likely that all of the proposed amendments will be passed by Congregation. Peter Oppenheimer, President of the Oxford Centre for Hebrew and Jewish Studies, is one of the academics voting. He said they were “not changing anything that’s not already illegal.”College regulations usually include a clause about drug possession. For example, Magdalen specify, “The College will report any breach of the law to the Police.”One student, who wishes to remain anonymous, commented, “I doubt this rule change is going to do anything to stop students possessing drugs. I think most students assume it’s not allowed, anyway.”last_img read more

Emma Russell shines in final season at Syracuse

first_img Published on September 21, 2015 at 7:53 pm Contact Sam: [email protected] | @Sam4TR Facebook Twitter Google+ The night before Emma Russell came to America, she felt nervous.The move from tiny Ireland to “massive” America and the leave from her family, which she’d never been away from for a long stretch before, was daunting to her.She’d made the difficult decision to move partly because in Ireland, she’d have to choose her career sooner to attend university. In the States, she could take different classes and keep options open. She also wanted to play field hockey at the highest level.“Still, I was terrified,” she said.Since arriving at Syracuse, Russell has been prolific. She’s started 68 of her 73 games, finished either first or second in goals scored in the past two seasons and led her team to the 2014 national championship game. On Sunday at Yale, Russell set the Syracuse all-time scoring record with the 48th career goal.AdvertisementThis is placeholder textBut before adjusting to America, becoming the team’s leader and practical joker and making the SportsCenter Top 10, Russell was just a scared 18-year-old. Her parents had traveled to America to help her move in, but their comfort was only temporary.“The first two days were definitely hard,” Russell said. “When you’re coming in for the first time, preseason is hard. And you’re homesick. Stuff adds up.”Russell found comfort in talking to Liz McInerney and Gillian Pinder, two Irish teammates on the field hockey team. She sat with head coach Ange Bradley and talked about the different phrases to use on the field. Some girls referred to the team as a family, but Russell felt skeptical she could ever feel that way.Russell eased into routine of preseason training camp. Three weeks later, classes started. By then, the 19 girls she’d been training with had become a support system. They showed Russell where to go for classes, studied and ate dinner together.Russell scored her first-career goal 4:21 into her first-ever game. Eight days later, at home in her third collegiate game, Russell netted the overtime game-winner to beat North Carolina, then the No. 2 team in the nation.“She’s willing to sacrifice short-term for the long-term gains,” Bradley said.Though Bradley meant it in the context of Russell’s training — getting up at 5 a.m. during winter for early training and staying in the night before games — it followed the trajectory of her willingness to adapt to a new lifestyle.Russell, who is shy at first, Bradley said, eased into club and country. She sings and dances randomly at practice. She plays pranks on teammates, once trying to convince goalkeeper Jess Jecko that she came to America to hide from pop star fame in China.She once told teammates Liz Sack and Sarah Kerly that a highlight of them appeared on ESPN, but she was playing a practical joke. Instead, she showed a video of the two of them hitting each other while trying to make a tackle.When Sack told Russell she made ESPN last year while they were sitting in a hotel for the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament, Russell thought it was payback.“She said, ‘No. I’m being serious,’” Russell recalled. “And then Ange told me. We watched it on the TV at the hotel. Honestly I didn’t know what SportsCenter was.”center_img Russell emerged as a leader. She took charge on the field and supported her teammates off it. When Lies Lagerweij did not travel with the team because of injury in 2014, Russell texted Lagerweij to check on her.“When there’s tension and I’m frustrated, she’s one to crack a joke,” forward Emma Lamison said. “Then I don’t feel as bad.”Bradley named Russell a captain this fall.This year, Russell lives with Sack and Lagerweij. Manley lives a “two-second walk” away. Last Wednesday, Russell had class with Lagerweij, then the two went to Schine Student Center, sitting and eating for two hours. Then the team practiced for four hours. Russell ate dinner in her apartment with Lagerweij, Sack, Manley and Zoe Wilson.Literally when I’m sleeping is the only time I’m not spending with (my teammates). I came in my first year and was like, ‘What? How can you call these people your family? I don’t think that could happen.Emma RussellThis season is Russell’s last for Syracuse. She’s no longer the terrified 18-year-old girl who moved to America on a hope that she’d find what she wanted to do while playing field hockey.This season, the Orange, for the first time since 2012, has a redheaded freshman from Ireland on the roster. Her name is Zoe Wilson.Wilson and Russell talk about home often; mutual friends, comfort foods and what they’d do for a Sunday roast.“Since freshman year, I’ve grown up a lot,” Russell said. “I was away from home, but…the two Irish girls on the team (my freshman year) helped me a lot.”It’s been four years since she had that help. Now she’s trying to do the same. Commentslast_img read more